Subscribe


  • DDO Email Subscription

  • RSS Subscription

  • "Everyone ultimately gets what they want from the market." - Ed Seykota

About the DDO

Search



  • WebDDO

Donald Trump & Robert Kiyosaki: Leaders of the American Cargo Cult

Excerpt from the Principles of the American Cargo Cult:

You can succeed by emulating the purported behavior of successful people: To enjoy the success of another, just mimic the rituals he claims to follow.

Here's a preview from an upcoming DDO post:

It's funny how once a someone succeeds - a person, a country - they tend to forget the ingredients of their own success.

It's sort of like listening to Donald Trump tell us that he succeeded as a developer because of "hard work," and not that his Dad's reputation, money and contacts allowed him to do deals that he would never have otherwise been allowed within 100 miles of. It does no one a favor to repeat such lies - not The Donald, who's likely to enter into yet another cockamamie business scheme driven by his inflated "self-made" ego, nor those listening to him, who will be lulled into complacency about the power of contacts for success in the business world.

Nonetheless: I now bring you a seminal event in financial publishing depravity:

Donald Trump, author of the best-selling "Think Like a Billionaire," is teaming up with "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki to self-publish a financial advice book expected to hit stores in October.

The title of the new effort, which has been evolving almost daily, is now expected to be: "Why We Want to Make You Rich," with the subtitle, "Two Men, One Message."

This is why you read the NY Post. Who else breaks this kind of news? Surprisingly, this passage from the article actually rings of some truth:

"You can only choose between rich and poor," Kiyosaki told Media Ink. "The middle class is gone."

I would say "in danger of going," not "gone," but perhaps that's a distinction without difference. I also liked this bit:

Trump, a real estate deal-maker and star of "The Apprentice" on NBC, has also had a run of No. 1 best-selling books for Random House, including "Think Like a Billionaire"

Think like a billionaire - a subject Trump knows a lot about. If you can't actually be a billionaire, the next best thing is deluding yourself, right? - Ed

For my prior ramblings on Trump, see here.
For my prior citation on Kiyosaki's Rich Dad, Poor Dad, see here. - Ed

Ugly Americans (DDO Book Review)

I read Ben Mezrich's Ugly Americans: The True Story of the Ivy League Cowboys Who Raided the Asian Markets for Millions on vacation. I finally bought it after a recommendation from a colleague over a year ago. Mr. Mezrich has also written a well regarded book about MIT students who went card counting in Vegas, Bringing Down the House (which I have not read), soon to be made into a movie by Kevin Spacey.

My thought process in selecting Ugly Americans for this trip was simple: the book had to be about finance, and I wanted something readable poolside. I wasn't disappointed by its readability. 2/3 of the book was consumed on the flight (~3 hours), and the final 1/3 somewhat laboriously by the pool, due to a combination of sun & pina coladas.

The story is plenty interesting on its own: a young American, somewhat serendipitously (read: alumni connections) makes his fortune at a young age trading in Japan.

However, I wonder whether the same story in the hands of another writer would have felt more authentic and impactful.  Mezrich has a zest for describing clothes, smells and sex clubs, but where the finance reader wants more detail, Mezrich provides less (the big trades.) I would guess that Mr. Mezrich simply felt more comfortable describing peripheral items, such as the brands on the goods they bought, rather than what they did to actually earn those things:

Page 1: "His Gucci shoes were already two shades darker..." (from the rain, which is ruining them! Japan sux! Ack!)

Page 10: "...he had been decked out in perfectly tailored Armani [at his wedding]. His shoes were from Italy..."

The "smell" descriptions are a particularly comedic touch: all of a sudden something will have a smell that is a run-on of random "smelly" objects. At these parts of the book, the ULLs (unintentionally laughable lines) run thick, and the book reads like a creative writing 101 course on how to "set the scene." The first line of the book is a perfect example:

"The breeze was thick and hot and weighed down with the stench of cigarettes, alcohol, cheap perfume, and dead fish."

The book is 270 pages long. The finance in it comes down to this:

  • The main characters were index arb traders at a hedge fund in Tokyo. The hero started as an order entry guy for a mysterious trader who really liked prostitutes.
  • Tokyo has a lot of sex clubs of bizarre types that are frequented by Japanese and wayward-but-rich-Western-expats. (This fits in the the loose definition of "finance.")

The first, of many, many references: "Malcolm had head of this sort of place before. The Japanese name for it loosely translated to 'sexual harassment club.'" (Page 4)

  • Japan can be unfriendly to gaijin. At one point, the guys are forced to eat a loss when they buy non-performing loans at a deep discount from Japanese banks that are collateralized by properties inhabited by untouchable yakuza (the Japanese mafia).
  • For a bunch of "smart Ivy League cowboys", they seem to be only able to make money when they have inside information. For the loan debacle mentioned above, the book gives no evidence that the fund actually visited the properties until AFTER they forked over $10mm (20% of face value). When they finally visit the properties, the problem is evident within seconds.
  • Along the lines of only being able to succeed with inside information: the hero made his first big money by collecting information from traders in the know that let him guess that the inclusion of PCCW in the Hang Seng index would not be an open market purchase; rather, the shares would be sold by the company founder directly to the index. This meant that he would be massively short while the rest of the market was massively long. Naturally, he figured this out after a private meeting with a trader at a side room at an elaborate party.
  • The hero made his lifetime "fuck you" money ($50mm) by successfully trading a Nikkei 225 re-balancing which swapped 15 old line industrial companies for 15 new technology ones. The culminating point of the book occurs on just two pages (pages 262-263) and is over in a flash. The trades he made - which are the whole point of the book - occupy one paragraph on page 262.

    Think about that for a second. This book is the "true story of how Ivy League cowboys raided the Asian markets for millions," and that event takes about a paragraph. Basically, he bought and shorted a massive amount of securities in one day. This was an emotional experience, but of course, not because he thought he might make a mistake:

"Each time he punched a key, it was as if he punched it for his mother...his entire body felt as if it were engulfed in flames...not because of his calculations - he knew they were right..." (p 262)

To me, this reads sort of like a football player describing a conductor at the symphony ("He moved gracefully and waved a wand like he was swordfighting with an imaginary enemy...") Anyway, this one day netted the hero $50mm, and $500mm to his firm. An impressive sum.

For me, the best quote was one line delivered by the hero when his Japanese girlfriend does not seem to appreciate the magnitude of his accomplishments - effectively, a cliche lifted from an Oprah interview:

Page 202: "Maybe she'd understand that opportunities like this did not come easily to people with his background."

Now, a few key details about the hero: he did come from a poor Jersey background, but after a stint at Princeton where he was the school's star quarterback, he received a job from an alumni - after a single conversation in a bar - based on his reputation as a quarterback.

The moral here, of course, being: no matter how much privilege and good fortune you've had along the way, we're all underdogs! - Ed

Note: Ugly Americans was first published in 2004. All page numbers are from the 2005 Perennial paperback edition.

DDO Book Review: TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald

The Donald, Godzilla Billionaire of the Business World
Trumpnation_cover_1
(a fictitious creature created for entertainment purposes)

I finally got around to reading TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald, Timothy O'Brien's 240-page reinterpretation of the Donald Trump legend. You know, that story about the crazy billionaire real estate mogul?

Summary: TrumpNation is an entertaining and quick read that gives an interesting history of the Trump business "empire" and various shenanigans, from the best (Trump Tower on 5th Avenue) to the worst (everything else).

Continue reading "DDO Book Review: TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald" »

Robert Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad, Poor Dad:" Dressing Down by John Reed

I don't know if any of you have read Rich Dad, Poor Dad, by Robert Kiyosaki. I have not, although I've had it recommended once. This book has been in virtually every bookstore I've ever been in, although I was never motivated to read it. Why I mention to this now:

A few months ago, I came across a website on real estate investing maintained by John T. Reed. He self-publishes a number of books on real estate that seem like they would be interesting reads. I expect I will purchase a few at some point in the future. He also maintains a collection of various get-rich-quick real estate promoters, and explains why they're full of it.

One such dressing-down on Reed's site was of Robert Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad, Poor Dad." Link to the full text is here.

A few excerpts are below for your entertainment:

In 1992, Kiyosaki wrote a book called If You Want to Be Rich and Happy, Don’t Go To School? It is “dedicated to Ralph H. Kiyosaki, former Superintendant of Education, State of Hawaii, the best teacher I ever had.” This would be “Poor Dad.” But Rich Dad Poor Dad, which came out in 1997, says pretty clearly that “Rich Dad was the best teacher he ever had.

So maybe “Rich Dad” was the second best teacher he ever had. No. Actually, the 1992 book also identifies the second best teacher Kiyosaki ever had: F. Marshall Thurber.

Continue reading "Robert Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad, Poor Dad:" Dressing Down by John Reed" »

Graef Crystal's Guilty Conscience

I want to pull out a few interesting excerpts from Graef Crystal's 1991 book, In Search of Excess: The Overcompensation of American Executives.

Graef has some good material in there, which I have cited only once as yet (as a joke) although I admit that overall the book is a little snoozy. (I think this is because most of the executives listed have come and gone, and in any case, were exceeded 10x over in the late 1990s.) Read about 75%, and then I had to put it down.

One interesting aspect for me was his experience and motives for writing the book, which are detailed in the introduction, and which I have excerpted below. The excerpt talks about how Crystal determined compensation levels, and what he would have done differently now if he could do it all over again.

Having facilitated the overcompensation of American executives in his career as a compensation consultant, Crystal now writes columns (and a few books) about the practice.

Although we'd need a university study to tell us which was more impactful on American business, my intuition tells me Crystal's work as a trailblazing compensation consultant was probably far more impactful, and damaging for American business, due to the establishment of precedent, than his current writings could ever hope to rectify.

The reason being that history and frequency now trump what decency and rarity once prevented.

At least, of course, Crystal is trying. I gladly give the man credit, and am linking to his book above so you can too. - Ed

In helping a company to decide how much to pay its top executives, I would like to have Williams’s survey data showing the current pay levels of other companies. The trouble was, however, that all the companies were U.S. companies, and so I never saw how American CEOs paid without stripping that of CEOs abroad during a period when foreign companies captured large portions of the American markets. And I never looked back to see how much top executives pay had been growing in the United States, compared to what ordinary workers were earning.

If a company wanted to pay its top executives above market levels – presumably to assure its ability to attract top talent and to encourage greater performance on the part of the talent the company already had‑ I generally went along with the CEO’s thinking. I never focused very well on the fact that unless other companies were willing to pay their executives at below market levels, the market would simply explode. And explode it did.

I succumbed more than I should have to the two favorite siren songs of American CEOs. First, if your company has performed brilliantly, then you should pay your top people brilliantly. However, if your company has performed poorly, you can not afford to make people suffer very much, because they will simply leave and go elsewhere; in other words, you have to keep the good people. Simple logic, of course, mandates that there can be very few effective people at the top of a lousy performing organization. But simple logic was apparently not my forte. As a result, I helped create the phenomenon we see today: huge and surging pay for good performance and huge and surging pay for bad performance, too. After all, if you are going to pay people highly in good times, because they deserve it, and if you are going to pay people highly in bad times, because you need to keep them with the company, just when is it that you are ever going to cut their pay? There are, so far as I know, only two types of times: good times and bad times.

I also succumbed to the argument that the reason CEOs earn so much today is that there is a scarcity of talent. Most of today’s CEOs were so-called depression babies, people born in the 1930s. That particular cohort, as the demographers term a ten-year span of birth, had far fewer births than the cohorts before or after it. Consequently, the supply of potential CEO labor was unnaturally low. Moreover, it was rendered even lower by the fact that until the 1970s, women were systematically excluded from the executive labor force. Hence, so the argument goes, if there is a scarcity of labor, there is naturally going to be an increase in the price of that labor, as company after company fights to obtain and keep scarce talent. The argument seems to hold water, until one thinks about the fact that our major trading partners ‑ Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom – also experienced the depression of the 1930s and its consequent effects on birth rates. Yet they seem to be able to field more than an adequate supply of CEO talent without paying the moon for it. For my part, I did not think about executive pay in other countries, because I saw it as being irrelevant to the U.S. executive labor market. Technically, it is irrelevant, but the fact that other countries can do the job - and frequently do it better – with lower priced talent points up that there is something wrong with the U.S. executive compensation. (Page 10)

Mark Cuban's Introduction to "The Number" by Alex Berenson

I've raved about The Number, by Alex Berenson before (see here or here). Mark Cuban wrote a great introduction to the paperback edition of the book, which I am posting below. I can't remember where this appeared originally - it's from my archives. If you're wondering why I'm posting old stuff now - it's part of my new years resolution to try and sit on material for shorter periods of time. Happy reading. - Ed

In 1990, I sold my company, MicroSolutions — which specialized in what at the time was the relatively new business of helping companies network their computer equipment — to CompuServe. After taxes, I walked away with about $2 million. That was going to be my nest egg, and my goal was to protect it at all costs, and grow it wisely.

I set about interviewing stockbrokers and settled upon a broker from Goldman Sachs, Raleigh Ralls.

Raleigh was in his late 20s, and relatively new to Goldman. But we hit it off very well and I trusted him. As we planned my financial future, I made it clear that I wanted my nest egg to be invested not like I was 30 years old, but as if I were 60 years old. I was a widows and orphans investor.

Over the next year I stuck to my plan. I trusted Raleigh, and he put me in bonds, dividend-paying utilities and blue chips, just as I asked.

During that year, Raleigh began asking me a lot of questions about technology. Because of my experience at MicroSolutions, I knew the products and companies that were hot. Synoptics, Wellfleet, NetWorth, Lotus, Novell and others. I knew which had products that worked, didn’t work, were selling or not. How these companies were marketed, and whether or not they were or would be successful.

I couldn’t believe that I would have an advantage in the market. After all, I had read A Random Walk Down Wall Street in college. I truly thought that the markets were efficient, that any available knowledge about a company was already reflected in its stock price. Yet I saw Raleigh using the information I gave him to make money for his clients. He finally broke me down to start using this information to my advantage to make some money in the market. Finally after more than a year, I relented. I was ready to trade.

Notice I didn’t use the word invest. I wasn’t an investor. I just wanted to make money. The reason I was ready to try was that it was patently obvious that the market wasn’t efficient. Someone like me with industry knowledge had an advantage. My knowledge could be used profitably. As we got ready to start, I asked Raleigh if he had any words of wisdom that I should remember. His response was simple. “Get Long, Get Loud”.

Continue reading "Mark Cuban's Introduction to "The Number" by Alex Berenson" »

Back to Fiction...

I started out 2005 with a plan to focus more intently on business and investment research in my spare time, which was where this blog came from. As part of this plan, I've read a number of books on business and investing this year. However, as the year draws to a close, I found myself reaching for something on my bookshelf quite uncharacteristic of late - fiction - which I'll share with readers as appropriate.

The passage below, from Saul Bellow's Mr. Sammler's Planet, makes light of (among other things) our need to name things. The character speaking, Lionel Feffer, is an enterprising young Columbia student who is explaining the rationale behind a business plan where he will take aerial photographs of the plants on people's property, find out the plant species name, and then sell marked up maps to the property owners. Enjoy. - Ed

Feffer: "[The plan] does sound hokey, but it's really a very good business idea. I intend to experiment with it personally. I have a great gift for salesmanship. I'll say that for myself. If the thing pans out, I'll organize it nationally, with sales crews in every part of the country. We'll need regional plant specialists. The problems would be different in Portland, Oregon, from Miami Beach or Austin, Texas.

'All men by nature desire to know.' That's the first sentence of Aristotle's Metaphysics. I never got much farther, but I figured the rest must be out of date anyway. However, if they desire to know, it makes them depressed if they can't name the bushes on their own property. They feel like phonies. The bushes belong. They themselves don't. And I'm convinced that knowing the names of things braces people up.

I've gone to shrinkers for years, and have they cured me of anything? They have not. They have put labels on my troubles, though, which sounds like knowledge. It's a great comfort, and worth the money. You say, 'I'm manic.' Or you say, 'I'm a reactive-depressive.' You say about a social problem, 'It's colonialism.' Then the dullest brain has internal fireworks, and the sparks drive you out of your skull. It's divine. You think you're a new man.

Well, the way to wealth and power is to latch onto this. When you set up a new enterprise, you redescribe the phenomena and create a feeling that we're getting somewhere. If people want things named or renamed, you can make dough by becoming a taxonomist." (page 110-111)

DDO Media Roundup

I thought I'd share some thoughts on things I've been reading and watching in my free time of late:

Books

Broadbandits by Om Malik - Highly recommended. Consumed about 75% of the book in a few hours on the plane and the rest at home over Thanksgiving. A highly readable, excellent summary of the 1990s telecom boom and bust, covering both the major players (companies and their executives) and the underlying economic drivers. For anyone not already familiar with what the telecom bust was all about, this is essential reading.

Here's a gem from the book on Ravia Suria, the Lehman Brothers analyst who first published on the magnitude of problems in telecom (page number from paperback edition):

When most of his peers were summering in the Hamptons or shopping in Milan, Suria read hundreds of SEC filings, analyzing the financials of companies like Winstar, Focal and Northpoint. His conclusion: in a matter of months, the purveyors of broadband would either have to start making a ton of money, or would simply go broke within months. ...

Suria's findings were startling. Since the Telecommunications Act of 1996, new-age telecoms had raised about $213 billion in debt, and another $62 billion in convertible bonds ... This didn't include the debt raised by the likes of AT&T and WorldCom, which totaled a whopping $265 billion. In comparison, in the heyday of junk bonds, between 1983 and 1990, the total debt raised was $160 billion, and the companies that raised those bonds were mostly cash-flow positive.

"Moreover, the debt from the high-yield and convertible markets does not represent the total borrowings of these young companies, as these numbers do not take into account transactions such as vendor financings, syndicated loans, or lines of credit", Suria wrote in his report. (Page 174)

Let's develop a couple of quick ratios here:

Telecom Boom/Bust vs. 80s Junk-Bond Mania:

  • New-Age Telecoms / 80s Junk Bonds = ($213 + $62) / $160 = 1.7x   
  • Total Telecom / 80s Junk Bonds = ($213 + $62 + 265) / $160 =  3.4x.

Movies

Walk the Line - The Johnny Cash biopic with Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon. This is a good movie, featuring strong performances from Phoenix and Witherspoon.

  • What's Great: The music. All of it is performed - surprisingly - by the actors themselves. I had already heard Johnny Cash's greatest hits, and originally felt that his music was both monotonous and corny. Post-movie, I walked away with an appreciation for Cash's music, and am already rockin' some Cash, Presley et al as a result.
  • What's Not So Great: The script - movie is about 2 hours, 20 minutes, and it DRAGS towards the end. Thinking on why this was, I believe the answer is the movie's insistence on focusing on how June Carter said no to marrying Johnny Cash about 20 times. I think they could have made the exact same points by focusing on her saying no twice.
  • Random Item: in the early stages of the developing relationship with June Carter, an overzealous New Yorker started yelling "whore!" everytime she came on screen. Seriously. Fortunately, this died down after a few minutes.

All James Bond movies in chronological order - I get this interest from my Dad - I'm up to the Timothy Dalton Bond movies. Having not watched most of the Connery and Moore Bond movies in a while, I was struck by their corniness, but I remember liking them when I was a kid.

  • First Bond Movie:  Dr. No - funny for all the un-Bond-like things Connery does before they figured out the "Bond formula" (action sequence, sex sequence, plot exposition, action sequence, repeat). In Dr. No, Bond a) goes to his apartment and sleeps for the evening (and I believe, he packs his own bags), and b) towards the end - where a newer Bond movie would be blowing up things every 30 seconds, Bond takes a nap on the beach! 
  • Worst Bond Movie: You Only Live Twice. Bizarrely, this was written by Roald Dahl, who is better known as a writer of children's fiction. So many unnecessary sub-plots in this movie, including a completely ridiculous half-hour where Bond "becomes Japanese" (including a wedding ceremony) so he can invade an underground base...at night...using stealth techniques...where presumably no one would notice he wasn't Japanese until it was obvious he wasn't on their side. Rivalled in badness only by Live and Let Die, which has the second best theme song and second worst plot (or tied for worst).
  • Best Bond Movie: TBD. I hear that On Her Majesty's Secret Service is the best, but I can't get it on NetFlix yet. I remember thinking that The Living Daylights was pretty good, but I haven't seen it in ten years and should be watching again this weekend. I also liked Never Say Never Again.
  • Best Combined Theme Song and Movie Plot: View to a Kill. Duran Duran takes the cake on this one, which had me singing "dance into the fire" (quite embarrassingly) for a few days afterwards. And the movie, which features the phenomenal (and young) Christopher Walken and Grace Jones as villains, is decent.

But I digress. The real reason I thought readers would care about James Bond was my observation of the recurring theme of GOLD as a desired payout in the pre-1970s films. Recall the US went off the gold standard in 1971. Some facts about gold ownership:

[As part of changes made to monetary policy in the 1930s], many nations, including the US, banned private ownership of gold using the Trading With the Enemy Act for statutory authority to abrogate gold and silver clauses in US Securities and impose fines of up to $10,000 on those who refused to do so. Jewelry, private coin collections, and the like were exempt from this ban, which in any case seems not to have been enforced too zealously. In 1975 all restrictions on the right of American citizens to own gold were abolished. (Source: Wikipedia)

This likely contributed to some of the mass fascination with the metal. Goldfinger, made in 1964, featured a villain (not a US citizen) who wanted to irradiate the gold in Fort Knox so that the value of his own holdings would increase. This plan's execution was way beyond its time, as it also featured an aerosol nerve gas dispensed by airplane, something we imagine Al Qaeda trying to do today. The otherwise atrocious You Only Live Twice featured a villain demanding $100 million in gold as payment.

By 1975, gold was pretty much ornamental - in The Man with the Golden Gun, the assasin Scaramonga was paid $1 million in cash per hit, even though he used a gold gun and bullets. 1995's GoldenEye was about a satellite.

This all stood out for me because after a few years of inflation with a paper currency, villains (and audiences) could care less about getting paid in gold, and the amount of money required to get people's attention over time became increasingly ludicrous.

The movie that brought home the concept of inflation for a mass audience was Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery (1997). The scene where Dr. Evil demands a ransom of "$1 million" only to raise it to "$1 billion" after a few rounds makes this pretty clear. Similarly, note the absence of gold from his demands, which were made one year prior to the lowest market price of gold in ~20 years.

Enough. Have a great weekend. Should be getting some more posts up today/tomorrow. - Ed

How the Accounting Industry Escaped Reform

As I noted in my earlier post on the ramifications of the 1987 crash, I am a big fan of quick and dirty histories of Wall Street.

In this spirit, I wanted to post this following excerpt from The Number, by Alex Berenson, which details how the accounting industry escaped meaningful reform for much of the last 30+ years.

This information is helpful to keep this in mind anytime you are involved in a discussion about "what is wrong with Wall Street" and why things haven't changed.

Equity Funding was not the biggest financial disaster to emerge from the great bear market of the early 1970s. ... The audacity of the Equity Funding scandal, which was probably the largest outright corporate fraud since McKesson a generation before, grabbed the public’s attention, and more than any company, [and] Equity Funding came to symbolize the go‑go years and the sour bust that followed. ...

Besides creating hundreds of millions in fake life insurance policies, Equity Funding had printed counterfeit stock certificates and carried them on its books as assets. “Publicly held companies do not lose money,” Goldblum had told an Equity Funding executive vice president in 1969 – and he meant it. By 1972 the company had become so dependent on fake revenues from fake policies that it needed a separate hidden office to create them.

Goldblum wound up with an eight‑year prison sentence but the FCC and the big board seemed less concerned about the scam than the fact that Ray Dirks, the analyst who first uncovered the fraud, had told his clients about it.

In April 1973 while Equity Funding unraveled, the Big Board formally accused Ray Dirks of failing to follow “good business practice” and threatened to suspend him for life from the Exchange. The SEC opened its own investigation into Dirks’ actions. The idea that analysts should be encouraged to perform independent research and follow up on tips apparently did not occur to the Commission. (Both inquiries dragged on for several years but Dirks was ultimately cleared). ...

The Equity Funding scandal along with chicanery at the conglomerates and the Penn Central bankruptcy produced the most serious criticism of the accounting industry since the McKesson hearings a generation earlier. ...

In an effort to head off outside scrutiny in 1971 the AICPA, the industry’s trade group, set up a blue ribbon committee to review the conglomerate accounting fiasco. The committee, led by former SEC Commissioner Francis Wheat, found that the Accounting Principles Board, the industry’s standard-setter, did not have sufficient independence to do its job and should be abolished. In place of the industry controlled APB, the Wheat Commission recommended a new industry controlled board, but there were big differences between the old APB and the new Financial Accounting Standards Board. First, the former had three words in its name; the latter had four. Second, the APB’s directors had been picked by the industry; the FASB’s directors would be chosen by something called the Financial Accounting Federation, whose members would be chosen by the industry.

Somehow, the Securities and Exchange Commission accepted the Wheat Committee’s proposal as a great improvement and the FASB was born in 1973. It quickly became obvious that the new board was as weak as its predecessor. One accounting expert predicted soon after FASB’s creation that the Board’s dependence for funding on its parent industry meant that its members would be “goldfish in a bowl of sharks”. The next 29 years bore out that depressing forecast. For most of its existence the FASB’s main mission seemed to be to avoid the wrath of the Big Eight accounting firms by not cracking down on aggressive accounting. ...

(Note: the “Big Eight” were the eight major accounting firms that dominated the profession from the 1960s through the late 1980s: Arthur Anderson, Arthur Young, Coopers & Lybrand, Ernst & Whinney, Deloitte, Haskins & Sells, Peat Marwick, Price Waterhouse and Touche Ross.)

Meanwhile, the Senate subcommittee that oversaw accounting had come to an even harsher conclusion. In the 1976 report the Committee found that

the traditional public image of the Big 8 accounting firms as impartial, objective experts is not founded on fact… As political partisans and purveyors of non‑accounting services they become loyal agents of the clients which employ their services…

It appears that the Big 8 firms are more concerned with serving the interests of corporate management who select them and authorize their fees than with protecting the interest of the public.

A political and business consensus for greater supervision of accountants seemed to be forming. In 1978 Congressman John Moss, chairman of the House subcommittee that oversaw the securities industry, introduced legislation to create an independent, federally chartered commission to oversee accountants. The bill would also have increased the potential liability of accountants for bad audits. The legislation would have been the most important strengthening of the securities laws since the New Deal.

But the push for reform wilted as quickly as it had gathered strength. The Moss bill didn’t even get out of the House. Most of the Cohen Commission’s recommendations were never implemented. By the late 1970s memories of Equity Funding, Penn Central and the conglomerates had faded. Without fresh scandals to stoke the public’s outrage Congress had little appetite to take on the Big Eight who were powerful, united and opposed to federal oversight.

Broader political currents also aided the accounting industry. At a time when trucking, airlines, and telecommunications were being de‑regulated, lawmakers were loath to put in heavy new restrictions on historically unregulated business. The SEC also backed away from imposing tougher rules. The Commission "has proven to be pretty much a paper tiger in its role as an accounting overseer. The Commission just muddles along issuing rules, fanning controversies, never taking a firm stand on anything," one observer wrote in 1981. Instead of federal oversight, investors would have to settle for “peer review” of the industry. Every three years the major accounting firms would check each other for quality and freshness.

Holding back giggles, the Big 8 claimed they would scrutinize one another as closely as any outside agency. “A tough, gutsy, no nonsense process, that’s the way we see peer view,” the managing director of Touche Ross said. Never mind that any firm that looked too closely at a competitor ran the risk of getting the same treatment when its turn came. Not surprisingly, for the next 20 years no firm ever found serious problems with another during a peer review. Once again, accountants had dodged serious regulation. In 1980, the chairman of PriceWaterhouse could not resist gloating of the industry’s victory:

As recently as a year ago it seems that the accounting profession would continue to face strong criticism for an indefinite time... As we enter the new decade, however, there are many signs that a sense of balance may soon be restored...

We can now turn our full energies to the issues that are of genuine concern: inflation, capital expansion, government accountability, and the expansion of our responsibilities to serve the needs of clients and the public.

It was nice to know that, as always, PriceWaterhouse and its peers were putting the public first.  (Chapter 4, “The Death of Equities”)

A great excerpt from an excellent book. I can't recommend this book highly enough for anyone on or off Wall Street who is interested to understand how the Wall Street has evolved. Link to Amazon

Note: there is no more text on the web - I had this excerpt transcribed for this blog. Hopefully Mr. Berenson will not mind, as this excerpt mostly confirms that you ought to buy it and read the rest of the book. - Ed

Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers (DDO Book Review)

I've been busy reading here at the DDO. I read an interview with Warren Buffet where he said that he spent 80% of his days reading, and 20% of his days on the phone. If he could modify this, he said, it would be 90% reading and 10% on the phone.  Other than adding writing to the mix (which helps clarify thoughts), I agree.  Maybe my target ratio is 60% reading, 20% phone, 20% writing.

The latest book over here is Hot Commodities, by Jim Rogers. And I'd have to say, the book rates highly, full of interesting and useful information.

Rogers says that those who have been predicting below-average, mean-reverting equity market returns for the period post-bubble implosion are right, because the baton has been passed by the equity markets.  Due to underinvestment in commodity production and transportation over the past 20 years, we are poised for a new bull market, which Rogerts elloquently sums up as: the next big thing is...things.

Now, most readers are likely to be biased as equity investors, and more generically as consumers, so it is initially difficult to understand how rising commodity prices is a "bull market" and not simply a catastrophe. Usually, we think of bull markets as meaning "business conditions are improving" whereas a commodity bull market implies the opposite.  Sometimes I think of this as a bull marlket in commodities representing the revenge of the agrarian and rural in an otherwise modernized world - we almost instinctually hate the idea because it reminds us that the latest cell phone is irrelevant compared with supply/demand imbalances for wheat, sugar or oil.

However, once you can begin to orient youself on the side of the commodity producer, you can start to appreciate the opportunity.  - Ed

My Photo

Disclaimer


  • This is a personal web site, and statements on this site reflect the opinions of its author only. This site is intended for informational purposes only, and may include facts and speculation about companies and markets as part of that process. None of the information on this site is guaranteed to be correct, and anything written here should be considered subject to independent verification. Any investment actions taken by you as a result of information written here are your responsibility.

Miscellany