Famous Emails: Jim Rogers vs. HBS MBA Student (Update 1)

I'm reprinting the email chain below between Jim Rogers and a feisty Harvard Business School student for your entertainment. Please note that this email exchange is over two years old, although the issues discussed are still relevant today.

I don't think that Rogers' current straits as pertains to the RIRMF should at all affect how we interpret this exchange (ie, thinking that because of Refco, Rogers' judgment is somehow suspect) - after all, it isn't that his thesis on commodity prices was poor (it was, in fact, excellent and extremely well timed), it was just that his choice of trading counterparties was unfortunate. It's not like many other informed people didn't make similar errors (see: Thomas Lee, McKinsey, etc.).

In re-reading this exchange today, I saw a tiny flash of recognition in Jim's thin skinned response. Slightly edited text is below.  - Ed

----- Original Message -----
From: Dmitry Alimov
To:   HBS Classmates
Sent: Friday, September 12, 2003 11:28 PM

Jim Rogers, a famous international investor and writer attended HBS this Wednesday. In his speech, he badmouthed Russia (in his usual style) and quoted several "facts" that were completely bogus. As you would expect, I could not let him get away with lying about our country and publicly disputed his factual claims. He basically told me I was a moron and left. In response, I sent an email to him with facts and references disputing his claims (sending a copy to my HBS classmates). What ensued is quite amazing - read attached emails. Start with the first email and read from the end (my original email), then read his response and finally my rebuttal in the second email. This will be worth your time I promise. This has already been circulated all over HBS, several other universities and in the investment community in New York. Since this is already in public domain, feel free to forward on.

Dima
__________________________________________________

Dear Mr. Rogers:

I am the “lad” who disputed your factual claims with regard to Russia today. First of all, I would like to thank you for speaking to us at the Harvard Business School.  I think I speak for my fellow HBS students when I say that we enjoyed your original views and interesting stories today. However, I must address the unfortunate reality that your facts about Russia are plain wrong. You made three principal inaccurate claims today - I will deal with all of them in sequence.

Claim #1.  People are leaving Russia

Wrong.  In fact, according to Financial Times, your favorite newspaper, Russia turns out to be the second largest recipient of immigrants after the US (see attached FT article). Oops. While it is true that Russia’s population is declining but the reasons for that have nothing to do with people leaving the country, it is things like low birth rate (only 1.2 per woman), which is an issue that confronts many European states.

Claim #2. Russia’s production of oil is declining, oil companies do not reinvest in production

Wrong and wrong.  Russian oil production has increased for the fifth year in a row (see attached Reuters article), and Russian oil majors are reinvesting in production (many of them have US GAAP accounts audited by Big Four firms you could easily have access to if you chose to look).

Claim #3. Investors are leaving Russia

Wrong again. Equity indexes (US Dollar denominated) are trading around their all time highs (see attached Barrons article), Russian bond yields are at historical lows.  As an experienced investor, surely you will recognize these as pretty convincing signs of investor confidence.

Overall state of the economy

Finally, I would like to quote World Bank’s recent report on Russia:

“The Russian Federation has made remarkable progress in tackling crisis and moving towards sustainable development between 1999 and 2002. With a much more stable political environment, the government has been able to build on experience gained in the 1990s and implement a sound reform agenda, in addition to maintaining macro-economic stability. Since 1999, assisted by high commodity prices, the economy has recorded strong growth, business confidence has revived, and poverty has declined. Russia’s sovereign credit rating has improved, although it has yet to reach investment grade. The speed and extent of recovery has taken most observers by surprise. Between early 1999 and end 2001, GDP grew by 21 percent, inflation fell from 86 percent to 18 percent, the fiscal situation turned around from a deficit of 5 percent of GDP to a surplus of 3 percent of GDP, and barter and arrears largely disappeared.”

Source: http://www.worldbank.org.ru

GDP growth of 21%?

Hardly a picture of total collapse, don’t you think?

Conclusion I believe the facts speak for themselves. I have no time or desire to try to convince you to invest in Russia. However, I do kindly ask you to abstain from spreading inaccurate information.

You are a public figure and many people including future leaders at Harvard Business School listen to you; it would be very unfortunate if they were misled by your inaccurate statements.

Finally, if nothing else, it is not good for your own public image. 

Kind regards,

Dmitry Alimov
CFA MBA Class of 2004
Harvard Business School

P.S. I took the liberty of sending a copy of this email to my fellow students so that we can set the record straight.

----- Original Message -----
From: Jim Rogers
To: Dmitry Alimov

Thank you for coming and for writing.

I rarely suffer fools gladly and even more rarely bother with chauvinistic know nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous canard:

[1] My goodness. Not only do you have no idea about what you are speaking, we now know you cannot read. The “immigration study” you mention was a bunch of estimates for the years 1970 to 1995. What the hell does that have to do with Russia in the past 8 years? Many were forced to go into Russia from the Soviet Republics under the Communists, but that was hardly free immigration as in the other countries. Even if people were going into Russia in the early 1990s, they were Russians being forced to leave the old USSR republics as the USSR dissolved in the early 1990s and those Russians fled back into Russia.

You have demonstrated you cannot read nor analyze nor have any concept of what is happening in Russia today, but do you not at least know a little Russian history?

[2] Oh my. You really should have kept your mouth shut and stopped long ago. This is not from “Reuters”. It is from the Russian government – the same group which claims to have had a balance of trade surplus for the last 9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and charlatans who became a laughing stock with their “facts” under  the USSR. The same who say that the Russian balance of trade in that period has been among the largest in the world. I did not think even B school students fell for that claptrap any more. But then you are the one who says the ruble is a good buy and that “it is a strong currency”. I suggest you check your facts on what has happened to the ruble in those 9 years when Russia “had the strongest balance of trade surplus in the world”. And that was a period when huge sums were also flowing in from the World Bank, IMF, etc, etc. “Inflows from the strongest balance of trade in the world and billions from the World Bank, etc” yet the currency kept declining. I and most others find that extremely strange.

Somehow or another the currency kept falling since most of us realized the same old bureaucrats were spewing out the same old garbage. I guess you were buying rubles all that time. No wonder you are in school rather than making it in the real world. You must have gone broke buying all those rubles.

And if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is the price of oil still so high? So you are indeed a gullible lad, but fortunately the market knows a lot more than you and your wailing into the wind.

You might read the section of my book about Russia’s reported figures – especially the trade figures. Or get some one to read it to you and explain it to you.

I know you said you have driven across Russia from the Pacific to Europe, but I’d like to know your route and which border crossings you used and who you found out there counting all this stuff.

[3] You really should have kept your mouth shut, but since you opened it: What balderdash. Now we know you have no understanding of markets in addition to being unable to read or comprehend. The Russian “market” is tiny and is insignificant compared to GNP so it is meaningless. Even your article points out that the few big hydrocarbon companies account for 70% of the stock market. [a] The price of oil more than doubled in the period the article discusses and [b] those stocks went up because of that and because of the manipulation by the oligarchs. Perhaps you did not notice your article mentioned the “murky” dealings in Russia?

I hardly consider 2 mutual funds and 4 or 5 manipulated oil stocks “as pretty convincing signs of investor confidence”.

But if you really believe all this codswallop, why are you in business school? Why aren’t you there making your fortune?

I presume you are long the Russian stock market?

For what it is worth, I was short the ruble and the Russian market in the summer of 1998 and back in the earlier bubble in the mid 1990s when Russia and its bureaucrats were going on and on with the same absurdity. Go back and look up what happened both times. Or perhaps you were long then too and got wiped out which is why you had to go to b school.

[4] “Overall state of the economy”: Now we are getting really embarrassed for you! The World Bank also praised Russia in 1998 just before the last collapse and in the mid 1990s just in time for that collapse. They also wrote in rapturous terms about all the Asia Tigers in mid 1997 just in time for the Asian Crisis [I was short Hong Kong back then too right into the World Bank’s rapture.] And the World Bank could not give Argentina enough money in the summer and fall of 2001 because of “its progress” when I was getting all my money out. [All this is very much on the public record so you do not need to fret about my image.] 

Need I go on? No one has ever stayed solvent much less made money listening to the World Bank [except business school professors who “consult” for them].

Oh dear, you get your information from the Russian government and the World Bank!? Are you mad? I know you say you have driven across Russia, but who do you really think is out there in those 11 time zones and tens of thousands on kilometers of Russia collecting all this “reliable data”?

And thanks for your advice about my analysis, facts and my “public image”. If you had done your homework, you’d know the public was and is extremely aware that I had shorted the ruble in 1998 and back in the mid 1990s [when I guess you were long]. It was the same kind if misinformation back then too that gullible souls like you swallowed.

And the public is extremely aware of my record of investing in many markets all over the world for many years. You might read John Train’s Money Masters of Our Time or one of several other books. I do not worry about it, but you should worry about yours.

But as for public image and inaccurate statements, you have demonstrated quite publicly and vocally that you can neither read nor comprehend what you read nor can you analyze anything in front of you and that you fall for anything someone tells you and that you have absolutely no knowledge of even recent Russian history. I was terribly embarrassed for you when you stood there babbling on in front of the others about the strong ruble – a currency which has been nothing but a catastrophe for a decade [despite your painfully absurd statements], but now you have shouted your hopelessness from the roof tops for all to see.

I hope your classmates will pull you aside and pass on this word of advice: It is better to remain silent and have people wonder if you are an idiot rather than to open your mouth and prove to everyone in sight that you are an idiot beyond all doubt. And one should never, ever go shouting from the rooftops when one is a total idiot because then the entire school knows it.

----- Original Message -----
From: Dmitry Alimov
To: Jim Rogers
 

Mr. Rogers:

I see that you prefer the language of personal insults instead of informed polite discussion. Well, this is your choice and I hope this is not consistent with your sense of style – you are a successful individual (as you mentioned many times) and it would be a shame to tarnish that with this sort of attitude. Also, apologies for getting you a little riled, I didn’t mean to, nor did I expect you to. I am enjoying the discussion and would like to just rebut some of your remarks.

Thank you for coming and for writing. I rarely suffer fools gladly and even more rarely bother with chauvinistic know nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous canard:

[1] [immigration] My goodness. Not only do you have no idea about what you are speaking, we now know you cannot read. The “immigration study” you mention was a bunch of estimates for the years 1970 to 1995. What the hell does that have to do with Russia in the past 8 years? Many were forced to go into Russia from the Soviet Republics under the Communists, but that was hardly free immigration as in the other countries. Even if people were going into Russia in the early 1990s, they were Russians being forced to leave the old USSR republics as the USSR dissolved in the early 1990s and those Russians fled back into Russia.
You have demonstrated you cannot read nor analyze nor have any concept of what is happening in Russia today, but do you not at least know a little Russian history?


For your viewing pleasure, below are the actual numbers of net migration (immigration less emigration) through 2001. As you can see, there is a net inflow in every single year for the past two decades. This does not even include an estimated 1-1.5 million of illegal immigrants to Russia.


Net Migration and Natural Increase in Russia, 1980–2001

(Abridged)

Source: State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Goskomstat Rossii

As you correctly point out, much of the immigration comes from the states of the former Soviet Union (although a very large part of the immigrants are Ukrainians and other CIS nationals). However, the fact remains that before and after 1995, immigration to Russia far exceeded emigration from Russia, which is the opposite of your original claim.


[2] [oil production] Oh my. You really should have kept your mouth shut and stopped long ago. This is not from “Reuters”. It is from the Russian government – the same group which claims to have had a balance of trade surplus for the last 9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and charlatans who

The quote below is taken directly from US Department of Energy website (I hope you at least believe your own government):

“A turnaround in Russian oil output began in 1999, which many analysts have attributed to rising world oil prices during this period (oil prices tripled between January 1999 and September 2000), as well as a number of after-effects of the 1998 financial crisis and subsequent devaluation of the ruble in August. Today, Russian oil fields are maintained using modern technologies from around the world, and many of the old command economy institutions have been streamlined. The rebound in Russian oil production has continued since 1999, resulting in 2002 total liquids production of 7.65 million bbl/d (7.4 million bbl/d of which was crude oil)--a 26% increase over the 1998 level. Accordingly, Russia is now the world’s second largest crude oil producer behind only Saudi Arabia.

(Abridged)

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/russia.html#oil

Or do you think the US government is also lying?  

became a laughing stock with their “facts” under the USSR. The same who say that the Russian balance of trade in that period has been among the largest in the world. I did not think even B school students fell for that claptrap any more.

I don’t think my fellow students deserve this condescending treatment. You should also know that my other Russian speaking HBS classmates were appalled by your comments in and after class. In addition to misstating the facts, you also characterized the country in an offensive manner. We are all rational people and are prepared to discuss the Russian economy and culture on merits (clearly, there are many negative things, particularly in the recent past) but it’s a very different matter when someone starts insulting a nation.

But then you are the one who says the ruble is a good buy and that “it is a strong currency”.

This is not quite the statement I made, but nice try at remembering. What I said was that this year, Russian currency appreciated and I stand by my statement. From 31.7 rubles/US$ at the end of 2002 it appreciated to 30.7 rubles/US$ now. I did not say it is a strong currency and I certainly don’t think that any currency is a good investment given that currencies are not interest bearing.

I suggest you check your facts on what has happened to the ruble in those 9 years when Russia “had the strongest balance of trade surplus in the world”. And that was a period when huge sums were also flowing in from the World Bank, IMF, etc, etc. “Inflows from the strongest balance of trade in the world and billions from the World Bank, etc” yet the currency kept declining. I and most others find that extremely strange. Somehow or another the currency kept falling since most of us realized the same old bureaucrats were spewing out the same old garbage. I guess you were buying rubles all that time. No wonder you are in school rather than making it in the real world. You must have gone broke buying all those rubles.

And if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is the price of oil still so high? So you are indeed a gullible lad, but fortunately the market knows a lot more than you and your wailing into the wind.

I find it amusing that you would ask this question. Surely you know that market prices are determined by many factors including demand (which, as you correctly pointed out in your speech, is on a secular upward trend), supply by other players (think Latin American and Middle East supply problems). Russia is one of the global energy suppliers and certainly cannot by itself control world energy prices. Surely you must know this?

You might read the section of my book about Russia’s reported figures – especially the trade figures. Or get some one to read it to you and explain it to you. I know you said you have driven across Russia from the Pacific to Europe, but I’d like to know your route and which border crossings you used and who you found out there counting all this stuff.

[3] You really should have kept your mouth shut, but since you opened it: What balderdash. Now we know you have no understanding of markets in addition to being unable to read or comprehend. The Russian “market” is tiny and is insignificant compared to GNP so it is meaningless. Even your article points out that the few big hydrocarbon companies account for 70% of the stock market. [a] The price of oil more than doubled in the period the article discusses and [b] those stocks went up because of that and because of the manipulation by the oligarchs. Perhaps you did not notice your article mentioned the “murky” dealings in Russia?
I hardly consider 2 mutual funds and 4 or 5 manipulated oil stocks “as pretty convincing signs of investor confidence”.

If the stock and bond market three year rally is not sufficient evidence for you, what about the fact that scores of major Western companies made significant capital commitments to Russia in the past few years? Here is just a sample of recent investments:

• Pepsi $1 bn
• Coca Cola $750 mln
• Metro (Germany) €1 bn
• United Technologies Corp. $400 mln
• Mars LLC $500 mln
• Procter & Gamble $150 mln
• Boeing $1.3 bn
• ExxonMobil $1.4 bn
• BP $3 bn

If this is not a reliable sign of investor confidence, I don’t know what is. But you probably think these companies are lying, too? Or are they also being manipulated by evil oligarchs?

But if you really believe all this codswallop, why are you in business school? Why aren’t you there making your fortune?

Let me know if you desire to see my bank statements and resume, I’ll email them to you. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised, maybe even compare them to yours when you were my tender age, for a real awakening. Maybe we can do the same when I am your age now, and we can revisit this cute discussion.

Rest assured, I certainly plan on continuing my career in Russia because I love the place, I am good at what I do and I will have a positive impact on the country. Surely, there are challenges and problems (name a place in the world that does not have a set of problems to deal with) but the opportunities are amazing. I find it extremely satisfying to be able to effect real change in the largest country in the world.

I presume you are long the Russian stock market? That’s correct.

For what it is worth, I was short the ruble and the Russian market in the summer of 1998 and back in the earlier bubble in the mid 1990s when Russia and its bureaucrats were going on and on with the same absurdity. Go back and look up what happened both times. Or perhaps you were long then too and got wiped out which is why you had to go to b school.

[4] “Overall state of the economy”: Now we are getting really embarrassed for you! The World Bank also praised Russia in 1998 just before the last collapse and in the mid 1990s just in time for that collapse. They also wrote in rapturous terms about all the Asia Tigers in mid 1997 just in time for the Asian Crisis [I was short Hong Kong back then too right into the World Bank’s rapture.] And the World Bank could not give Argentina enough money in the summer and fall of 2001 because of “its progress” when I was getting all my money out. [All this is very much on the public record so you do not need to fret about my image.]

While one may or may not agree with the World Bank’s adjectives and characterizations, there are objective facts and figures that speak for themselves. Do you think that 21% real GDP growth is a sign of total collapse of the economy or do you think that the government and international finance organizations are lying about the figures?

Need I go on? No one has ever stayed solvent much less made money listening to the World Bank [except business school professors who “consult” for them]. Oh dear, you get your information from the Russian government and the World Bank!? Are you mad? I know you say you have driven across Russia, but who do you really think is out there in those 11 time zones and tens of thousands on kilometers of Russia collecting all this “reliable data”?

And thanks for your advice about my analysis, facts and my “public image”. If you had done your homework, you’d know the public was and is extremely aware that I had shorted the ruble in 1998 and back in the mid 1990s [when I guess you were long]. It was the same kind if misinformation back then too that gullible souls like you swallowed.

Every “babushka” shorted ruble during that time period; it was a highly inflationary currency.

And the public is extremely aware of my record of investing in many markets all over the world for many years. You might read John Train’s Money Masters of Our Time or one of several other books. I do not worry about it, but you should worry about yours.

But as for public image and inaccurate statements, you have demonstrated quite publicly and vocally that you can neither read nor comprehend what you read nor can you analyze anything in front of you and that you fall for anything someone tells you and that you have absolutely no knowledge of even recent Russian history. I was terribly embarrassed for you when you stood there babbling on in front of the others about the strong ruble – a currency which has been nothing but a catastrophe for a decade [despite your painfully absurd statements], but now you have shouted your hopelessness from the roof tops for all to see.

I hope your classmates will pull you aside and pass on this word of advice: It is better to remain silent and have people wonder if you are an idiot rather than to open your mouth and prove to everyone in sight that you are an idiot beyond all doubt. And one should never, ever go shouting from the rooftops when one is a total idiot because then the entire school knows it.

I will leave it up to my classmates to make characterizations in this case. Again, I will not dignify your insulting comments with a response. If you are interested in what impression your email made on my classmates, please read this sample email - one of many similar emails I received today:

“Dmitry, I was shocked by the letter that Jim wrote you. I am sorry that you had to read that. It was totally ridiculous. I thought you wrote him a respectful and well argued letter and for some reason he decided to tear into you. I am not sure who is on the right side of the facts, but I do know that I talked to the top guy at Morgan Stanley Private Client last week and he said that Russia is one of their top picks going forward.

Respectfully yours,
Dmitry Alimov
CFA MBA Class of 2004
Harvard Business School

Link

Comments

[mh497]

I once had a very brief interaction with Jim Rogers and he was probably the nicest mega rich guy I have ever encountered. [Though to be honest, I've only encountered a handful.]

I don't know what was up in this encounter, but I think it's silly for it to have been sent into cyberspace. I enjoy your blog otherwise though.

Given the questionable situations of Yukos and Gazprom & the Ukraine (versus, say Belarus), I wouldn't invest in Russia with your money (as Jim Rogers would say). Yes, serious money has been made in Russia, but when you basically can't trust the legal system and the normal workings of business, it's just a question of time before something explodes in your face.

[JH]

Wow, Jimmy seems a bit irritable, no doubt due to the Refco fiasco. I have to say though I agree completely with his analysis of Russia. Invest in these bottle rocket economies at your own peril. Do you really believe Putin, ex frontman of the KGB and communist xenophobe at heart, has embraced free markets and Western capitalism?

[James Cameron]

"Wow, Jimmy seems a bit irritable, no doubt due to the Refco fiasco."

Irritable? More like totally boorish. He could have discussed the issues professionally, or he could have ignored the debate altogether. Instead he engaged in name calling and managed to mangle some issues along the way to boot.

dear faggot harvard boy

i didnt read much of any of this. but i am in the financial markets and you fail to comprehend one thing:

Rogers has hundreds of millions of dollars of wealth. Acquired by investing. This makes you a snot nosed, polo playing, trust fund bitch. God has blessed you with two ears and one mouth, perhaps that is natures way of telling you to shut your pie hole and listen up...

When you get your hedge fund manager job from your dads buddy and are managing money and have had 10-20 years of consecutively earning 20-300% returns - then i will listen to you. Until then - try the humble pie - it goes well with ice cream. Faggot

[Marketsurfer]

Are you friggin' high? Hundreds of millions in net worth? Try <$10,000,000 at last estimate.

[Lockheed]

Even though I may agree with Jim Rogers' facts 100%, I believe he could have displayed greater humility and didn't have to stoop to the level (perhaps even past that) of Dmitry Alimov. I am not commending the Mr. Alimov, infact, I don't care much for his arrogance. I would however hold Mr. Rogers to an ever high standard of behavior -- besides, he's a Professor at Columbia University and should have the tact to dealing with students - however idiotic comments they may make. I do understand that he's infact hugely wealthy, but there are self-made men *much* richer than he is who would handled this situation in *much* more sophisticated a manner. Case in point, Mr. Warren Buffet.

[J. S.]

I briefly encountered Jim Rogers around 1994. Based on my experience, I am not in the least surprised to now read about his vitriolic e-mail to the Harvard MBA student. Rogers is a physically tiny man, and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the genesis of the huge chip he seems to have on his shoulder. I got the impression that he didn't like people very much.

I found this blog while searching on "Jim Rogers net worth", because I always have found it curious that a man of periodically huge lapses of judgment (IMO) would have much of one. It would not surprise me if his main income derives from book sales.

I remember an interview with Soros in which Soros clearly stated that Rogers was good for ideas, but not good at timing. I also recall Rogers claiming he was short Intel - just prior to the huge runup of the late 1990's. And I recall his disrespectful references to Columbia MBA students, which he taught.

[Tony Yu]

I can certainly understand Jim Roger's frustration. Imagine someone tries to tell you the earth is flat or earth is the center of our universe? The fact that Jim Rogers has the balls to speak his own ideas contrary to consensus media time and time again and puts his investment dollars where his mouth is time and time again speaks volume about his personality and character. About some of the comments about his net worth, using a 12% compounded rate of return since his retirement over 30 yrs or so, you gotta think he is worth at least half a billion, if not more. Of course, his personal net worth is nobody's business, it is his character and persona everyone should give credit toward. Unlike many of today's star fund managers, his track record speaks volumes. Soros might have mentioned one small downside of Jim Roger's ability but Jim Rogers has always admitted to his poor timing on TV, no big deal there. Bottomline, Jim Rogers has walked the walk, talked the talk, unlike Harvard boy who should equalize things a bit by posting his own history of investing prowess if he has one for viewers' comparison sake.

[LIC]

Of course it would have been better for Rogers to keep silent on this one, but with that said I understand why he lashed out at this naive kid. Reporters, professors, and know-it-all students love citing government statistics, as if they are the final word because they bear the stamp of authority, and I'm sure Rogers has heard it over and over. Most of us know better than to trust these organizations. By the way, the US government doesn't occupy the moral high ground on this measure, and I'm pretty sure Rogers thinks they are lying as well. One last thing: The tone of Mr. Alimov's initial email was insulting, and while on a good day I'm sure Jim would have let it go, his response was not unjustified.

[LIC]

Of course it would have been better for Rogers to keep silent on this one, but with that said I understand why he lashed out at this naive kid. Reporters, professors, and know-it-all students love citing government statistics, as if they are the final word because they bear the stamp of authority, and I'm sure Rogers has heard it over and over. Most of us know better than to trust these organizations. By the way, the US government doesn't occupy the moral high ground on this measure, and I'm pretty sure Rogers thinks they are lying as well. One last thing: The tone of Mr. Alimov's initial email was insulting, and while on a good day I'm sure Jim would have let it go, his response was not unjustified.

[Kenneth Wilson]

QUOTE
“Dmitry, I was shocked by the letter that Jim wrote you. I am sorry that you had to read that. It was totally ridiculous. I thought you wrote him a respectful and well argued letter and for some reason he decided to tear into you. I am not sure who is on the right side of the facts, but I do know that I talked to the top guy at Morgan Stanley Private Client last week and he said that Russia is one of their top picks going forward. END QUOTE

Dmitry's classmate is perhaps even more vacuous than himself. The "top guy" eh? Well I talked to the "big dog", the "head honcho" and the "big kahuna" and they all said you were functionally retarded.

[Russian Douche]

That's the problem with these a$$holes who get into a top business school. All of a sudden they think it is a pass to "I'm smarter than everyone else" attitude. I don't blame him for getting pissed off. Jim was probably reeling at what a disrespectful douche you were! ok to make one comment but to keep rambling on absorbing other student's time b.c you want to look intelligent is completely immature and selfish. If you want to invest in Russia go ahead..Let's see how well you do.. You seem to be getting educated in another land besides your precious "Russia" DOUCHEBAG!
oh and for referencing your loser classmate..I've never worked for more uninnovative people in my entire life than an Investment Bank..Investment Banks are NEVER wrong hun? Let's not start with facts now! Idiot!

[Bill]

If Rogers was so confident of his facts, experience, and status as a teacher, why the need to personally attack and demean Alimov, a student? Apparently, in addition to happiness, money cannot buy emotional maturity either.

[Jack]

If this Russian student is so confident about Russia, why is getting educated in the US? Why isn't he in Russia? And no doubt after his studies, he will also seek to work (and invest) in the US? As well as start a family here.

Jim Rogers may have been out of line, but this Russian student doesn't exactly come across as innocent either. Frankly he comes across as a "know-it-all."

Finally, doesn't anyone thing it wrong for this Russian student to share the email with the world? I think that shows a lack of respect and decency.

[ES]

Dear Jack,

Everyone is entitled to the wrong opinion, but NOT to the wrong fact.

I personally interacted with Dmitry Alimov and he may not be my favorite person in the world, but he was reasonable when he presented the facts to Rogers, and Rogers on the other hand had misrepresented the facts. Alimov had a right to correct Rogers since he was speaking at HBS and Alimov paid his American tuition $$$$, so why not to get your money worth?!

Jack, I spoke to Alimov a few years back when he was at HBS and he did NOT plan on staying in US despite many lucrative offers he was receiving. We did not keep in touch, but I am fairly sure he is doing well in Russia and I am fairly positive if he would start a family it would only be in Russia because women are truly gorgeous over there.

[Letsgothere]

Life is about walking the walk. Talk is cheap, stats are cheap.

I can see a talker and I can see a walker, I think most people can tell them apart, those that matter anyway.

[Jin.Z]

Here's one for Mr. Alimov,

Investment banks hire MBAs and PhDs. Why? Because of the franchise they're running. They're mostly sell-side firms. Even though they do have prop desks and inhouse HFs. Maybe less than 10% people on their floors are strictly buy-side traders? I don't know the exact number. Others are just highly educated sales people if you will. They need MBAs and PhDs to come out with seemingly intelligent and well-argued market reports so other people will actually buy the papers they write. Also thanks to their smart valuation on those papers that's causing billions of write-downs now. (Who talked GM into buying those mortgage papers?)

Now on the buy-side they don't care about what degree you have, they care about MONEY. See, M-O-N-E-Y. If you're a PhD and you make money, that's fine; but if you're a high school drop out and you make money, that's fine too. They really don't care if you went to HBS. Some HFs run quantitative strategies, so they need "quants" to do the modelling. But same thing applies, you make money, you stay, you lose, get the hell out. Even if you have a well-working theory and model. It's just about the money. That's all there is to it.

"The top guy at MS?"
LMAO...... It would be a piece of cake taking money away from this kid. Good luck trading on that tip MS gave you.

Jim was right about the figures. Governments lie. Just look at the inflation. Fed only looks at the core CPI which excludes energy and food. So according to their standards inflation isn't that a biggy at this time. Here's a more accurate indication: look at how much college tuition has increased for the past 3 years.

Now I can understand why Jim was frustrated by that email. You don't argue with someone who's been in this business for years and has such a good track record. Especially when you're still a kid in school. It's like reading about the moon in a textbook then go to Armstrong and say "you know what, I know more about the moon than you do."

However, that being said, the russian currency was a good call on his part. LOL. I'll give him that.

[Jack]

well, I do not know why Mr. Rogers admires China so much, they have got hellish problems there, including problems with regions and minorities ( look up Tibet or Uiguristan ).
true, they are developping rather rapidly, and I give them credit fot that.
And I believe, they are a super power already now.
But his stance on Russia is wrong, to my mind.
Russian economy will grow about 8 % this year, with many industries being built in the country.
FDI into Russia has grown 5 times for since 2004, say after YUKOS affair.
if you travel across the country, you see the situation change even in small cities.
Yes, sure, much more must be done to get the country out of the economic and social swamp it had fallen into during the 90ties.
But it needs time in such a HUGE land with 11 time zones, and complex climatic conditions!
Russia's real GDP has grown 76 % since 1999!
Rogers refers to the time of the year 1998, when Russia defaulted, but according to the latest figures, national forex reserves ammount to 548 billion $.
It is ridiculous to hear him say that Putin is not in control of the regions... Is he too "small" to realise, that such a gigantic and complex land, as Russia, can not be governed from one centre?!
Russia is a Federation, as is America. Federation works on self-goverment of the territories, and a clear division of federal and regional spheres of responsibility. I would not say, that Bush has to "control" California to keep America together!
California is governed by the State Governor Mr Schwarznegger, isn't it?
I am a Russian and know the History and mentality of the country, and I think Mr. Rogers should learn to keep his mouth shut on matters which are beyond his understanding.
At the same time, I appreciate his vision of Asia, he has proven right many times.
Though, to be honest with you, it is clear to anybody, that Asia is getting back to its feet, it just can not be long, that the world is ruled from Washington D.C.

[Asian, not Russian]

I thought the personal attacks from Jim was unwarranted. And probably he needn't have replied. The reason why he could have attacked the kid this way was his frustration that he 'had' to respond to the email. (Otherwise the student would proclaim - see, I was right. He took in all the facts that I presented and he accepted them, hence, no response from him'.
So Jim responded. But was outraged that he 'owed' an explanation to this kid. Oh well. Catch 22.
I did a little googling on Dmitry, seems that he really went back to Russia and is heading an investment firm now. If the information from the internet is to be believed.
Lastly, Russian women may be hot but some are really neurotic, especially the hotter one. Insecure. I have been with them so I should know. Ukranian could be better. Smarter and less self-destructive.

[Callum]

After exchanging emails with rogers myself, he doesn't seem to of changed. I think he rather despises the supposed "proper way to deal with people".

I agree with some of the comments above, Dmitry, you are a snott nosed Harvard boy. Have fun working for your superiors making them billions while you only take millions.

[GG]

Rogers is right. US Govt. stats is a total lie. World Bank is just its tool.

[ernest]

the value of Rogers' response.. harsh, but filled with gems:

- never take govt statistics without factoring in the political element

- don't use historical stats (upto 2001 figs) to back up a present-day debate

- follow the money: when the significant locals start buying up houses and football clubs in distant countries - take it as gospel that investing domestically stinks

- be humble at all times

loved this blog

[One of the leading investment experts in America]

Rogers is often wrong and doeds not know things like the sheep think. I give him some credit where credit is due. But that was then and this is now. Rogers was good when only under Soros. As for posting this online, I'm glad to have read it but I think it was inappropriate. The Russian guy contrived the whole thing knowing he would post it. Is that fair to Rogers? This is the kind of behavior to expect from the useless MBA types who don't know jack about real business or investing.

[observant]

Rogers' frustration is the frustration of anybody with a brain for the past 15 years. As Wall Street boomed for an unprecedented period of time (due to government support), NY has been filled with 20-something know it alls who made quite a bit of money for no reason other than waking up in the morning and showing up at the office. Many intelligent and prudent men have been waiting for the boom to end since the late 90's, but nature hadn't taken its course until 2008. So you can imagine how an experienced man like Rogers' was ticked that a 20-something with no experience (or wealth) challenged him as if he were his equal.

[lmao]

cool